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Analysis of institutional authors

Lara-Galera, AntonioCorresponding AuthorMolina-Millán, JuanAuthorMunoz-Medina, BelenAuthor
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Spread valuation and risk on transport infrastructure loans

Publicated to:Economics Of Transportation. 41 100392- - 2025-03-01 41(), DOI: 10.1016/j.ecotra.2024.100392

Authors: Lara-Galera, A; de Albornoz, VAC; Molina-Millán, J; Muñoz-Medina, B

Affiliations

Univ Politecn Madrid, Madrid, Spain - Author

Abstract

For some time now, public administrations in many countries have been subject to strict budgetary constraints to control the public deficit. The Public Private Partnership (PPP) model in this context is a useful vehicle to develop public infrastructures. Despite its attractiveness and potential, there is an accumulation of evidence that questions this model with different experiences showing that PPPs are relatively risky projects for all participants. This is especially true for financial creditors, who usually lend up to 85% of the funds needed for financing the project. The main objective of this research is to develop a methodology for valuing the financial cost of loans in PPP projects for transportation infrastructure, depending on demand risk. This paper proposes the use of option pricing approach to determine the loan spread in PPP transport projects. To mitigate the risk faced by project financiers, it would be necessary to guarantee the repayment of the debt service. Given that the project's cash flows are uncertain due to demand risk, the cost associated with this guaranty reflects the risk premium that financiers bear as well as the overall cost of financing. This guarantee may be determined as a derivative (an option) of the project traffic. To test this methodology, a real regional toll motorway in Spain has been used, comparing the contractual risk premium of the bank loans obtained with the risk premium calculated by the proposed model. This research indicates that the spread on concessional loans significantly decreases over time, paralleling the reduction in traffic risk, and is notably higher during the initial years of the project. Furthermore, discrepancies between the projected and actual initial traffic have a substantial impact on the risk assumed by lenders. As limitation of this study, it is important to note that in practice the risk premium incorporates other relevant variables for the project and the industry that are not considered in this study.

Keywords
ContractsDebDerivativesLoanPppProject financeRisRiskSpreads

Quality index

Bibliometric impact. Analysis of the contribution and dissemination channel

The work has been published in the journal Economics Of Transportation due to its progression and the good impact it has achieved in recent years, according to the agency Scopus (SJR), it has become a reference in its field. In the year of publication of the work, 2025, it was in position , thus managing to position itself as a Q1 (Primer Cuartil), in the category Economics, Econometrics and Finance (Miscellaneous). Notably, the journal is positioned above the 90th percentile.

Impact and social visibility

From the perspective of influence or social adoption, and based on metrics associated with mentions and interactions provided by agencies specializing in calculating the so-called "Alternative or Social Metrics," we can highlight as of 2025-05-06:

  • The use of this contribution in bookmarks, code forks, additions to favorite lists for recurrent reading, as well as general views, indicates that someone is using the publication as a basis for their current work. This may be a notable indicator of future more formal and academic citations. This claim is supported by the result of the "Capture" indicator, which yields a total of: 3 (PlumX).

With a more dissemination-oriented intent and targeting more general audiences, we can observe other more global scores such as:

    Leadership analysis of institutional authors

    There is a significant leadership presence as some of the institution’s authors appear as the first or last signer, detailed as follows: First Author (LARA GALERA, ANTONIO LORENZO) and Last Author (MUÑOZ MEDINA, MARIA BELEN).

    the author responsible for correspondence tasks has been LARA GALERA, ANTONIO LORENZO.