June 9, 2019
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Explaining light vehicle demand evolution in interurban toll roads: a dynamic panel data analysis in Spain

Publicated to: TRANSPORTATION. 43 (4): 677-703 - 2016-07-01 43(4), DOI: 10.1007/s11116-015-9612-3

Authors:

Gomez, Juan; Manuel Vassallo, Jose; Herraiz, Israel
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Affiliations

Univ Politecn Madrid, Ctr Invest Transporte TRANSyT, Calle Prof Aranguren S-N - Author
Univ Politecn Madrid, Dept Matemat & Informat Aplicadas Ingn Civil, Calle Prof Aranguren S-N - Author

Abstract

Tolls have increasingly become a common mechanism to fund road projects in recent decades. Therefore, improving knowledge of demand behavior constitutes a key aspect for stakeholders dealing with the management of toll roads. However, the literature concerning demand elasticity estimates for interurban toll roads is still limited due to their relatively scarce number in the international context. Furthermore, existing research has left some aspects to be investigated, among others, the choice of GDP as the most common socioeconomic variable to explain traffic growth over time. This paper intends to determine the variables that better explain the evolution of light vehicle demand in toll roads throughout the years. To that end, we establish a dynamic panel data methodology aimed at identifying the key socioeconomic variables explaining changes in light vehicle demand over time. The results show that, despite some usefulness, GDP does not constitute the most appropriate explanatory variable, while other parameters such as employment or GDP per capita lead to more stable and consistent results. The methodology is applied to Spanish toll roads for the 1990-2011 period, which constitutes a very interesting case on variations in toll road use, as road demand has experienced a significant decrease since the beginning of the economic crisis in 2008.
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Keywords

BridgeDemand elasticitiesDynamic panel dataElasticitiesLight vehicle demandModelsSpainTimeToll roadTravel demand

Quality index

Bibliometric impact. Analysis of the contribution and dissemination channel

The work has been published in the journal TRANSPORTATION due to its progression and the good impact it has achieved in recent years, according to the agency WoS (JCR), it has become a reference in its field. In the year of publication of the work, 2016, it was in position 12/34, thus managing to position itself as a Q1 (Primer Cuartil), in the category Transportation Science & Technology.

Independientemente del impacto esperado determinado por el canal de difusión, es importante destacar el impacto real observado de la propia aportación.

Según las diferentes agencias de indexación, el número de citas acumuladas por esta publicación hasta la fecha 2026-04-15:

  • Google Scholar: 19
  • WoS: 8
  • Scopus: 10
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Impact and social visibility

From the perspective of influence or social adoption, and based on metrics associated with mentions and interactions provided by agencies specializing in calculating the so-called "Alternative or Social Metrics," we can highlight as of 2026-04-15:

  • The use, from an academic perspective evidenced by the Altmetric agency indicator referring to aggregations made by the personal bibliographic manager Mendeley, gives us a total of: 16.
  • The use of this contribution in bookmarks, code forks, additions to favorite lists for recurrent reading, as well as general views, indicates that someone is using the publication as a basis for their current work. This may be a notable indicator of future more formal and academic citations. This claim is supported by the result of the "Capture" indicator, which yields a total of: 16 (PlumX).

With a more dissemination-oriented intent and targeting more general audiences, we can observe other more global scores such as:

  • The Total Score from Altmetric: 3.

It is essential to present evidence supporting full alignment with institutional principles and guidelines on Open Science and the Conservation and Dissemination of Intellectual Heritage. A clear example of this is:

  • Assignment of a Handle/URN as an identifier within the deposit in the Institutional Repository: https://oa.upm.es/36372/

As a result of the publication of the work in the institutional repository, statistical usage data has been obtained that reflects its impact. In terms of dissemination, we can state that, as of

  • Views: 493
  • Downloads: 497
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Leadership analysis of institutional authors

There is a significant leadership presence as some of the institution’s authors appear as the first or last signer, detailed as follows: First Author (GOMEZ SANCHEZ, JUAN) and Last Author (HERRAIZ TABERNERO, ISRAEL).

the author responsible for correspondence tasks has been GOMEZ SANCHEZ, JUAN.

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Awards linked to the item

The authors wish to thank the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (MINECO), which has funded the project EU Support Mechanisms to promote Public Private Partnerships for financing TransEuropean Transport Infrastructure'' [TRA 2012-36590].
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